Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Introducing the Consolidated College Basketball Aggregate Ranking:

or the CCBAR.  Ever since the advent of modern College Basketball (or Football) polling there has been controversy.  This is primary due to the human element in determining the top 25 teams in the country as well as other factors, such as strength, or difficulty  of schedule.

To complicate matters further there are now currently numerous computer polls which spew out the top college basketball teams in the country daily.  Currently, there is considerable dispute over which poll is the "best" or most accurate.

The Consolidated College Basketball Aggregate Ranking, CCBAR is an attempt to get an overall ranking of the best teams in the country.  In this endeavor we make certain assumptions.  The CCBA Poll must be:
  • Objective
  • Use both "Human" and Computer Polls
  • Use the most reputable each of the Human and Computer Polls
  • Be repeatable by anyone (as is the case in any science experiment)
  • Be easy to understand and use
The two "human" polls we use are the AP Poll and the USA Today College Basketball Polls both of which have been around for decades.  The two computer polls used are the Jeff Sagarin NCAA Computer Ranking (whose rankings have appeared in USA Today since 1985) and ESPN Basketball Power Index.

We overweight the two human polls, thus they account for 60% of the CCBA Poll Ranking and the computer polls count for 40% of the total ranking.  Thus each INDIVIDUAL poll counts for the following:
  • AP Poll = 30%
  • USA Today Coaches Poll = 30%
  • Sagin Computer Poll = 20%
  • ESPN BPI = 20%
Finally there is a small twist.  We take the average from the above formula and multiply it by the teams win/loss percentage.  A team that has a 9-1 record has a 90% win loss percentage.  An undefeated team (there currently are none) has a 100% win loss record.  A 20-5 team has a 80% (or 0.8) win loss percentage.

The final CCBAR formula is
( (AP Poll) x 30% + (USA Today Coaches Poll) x 30% + (Sagin Computer Poll) x 20% + (ESPN BPI x 20%) ) x Teams win/loss percentage = CCBA
For example Northwest Southern University (NSU) is ranked:
  • 3rd AP Poll
  • 6th USA Today Poll
  • 2nd Sagin Computer Poll
  • 10th ESPN BPI
NSU has a 8-2 record (80% win/loss percentage)

NSU will have a CCBA rating of:
(3 x 30%) + (6 x 30%) + (2 x 20%) + (10 x 20%) = .9 + 1.8 + .4 + 2 = 5.1

5.1 x 80% = 4.08 CCBAR Rating.
So this will have to be compared to the other schools to see where they rank.  ((Northwest Southern University is an imaginary school.))

Note:  We use the winning percentage intentionally. Schools with a higher win percentage will rank higher than schools with a lower win/loss percentage as it should be.  A 0-1 or 0-2 team will not be ranked as their multiplier is 0.  We justify this because with no wins a team hasn't proven anything yet, they need to win to be ranked.

And a final, thought on strength of schedule.  The computers take care of this so although it is not explicitly addressed, it it indirectly addressed via the 40% of the rankings that come from the computers.

So here are today's CCBAR Poll Rankings:

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