Polling shows that the state is close between Obama and a Republican candidate. But as any political wonk knows - through the power of sampling you can get a poll to show practically anything you want. Many of the polls showing President Obama in the lead have sample Democrats much more, sometimes as many as 10 percentage points more than Republicans.
Far and away more important than polling are actual election results. And since the Obama 2008 victory there have been three separate statewide elections, The Governor's 2009 election, the 2010 Congressional Elections and the 2011 State elections. In each of these elections the Republicans have won decisively in numbers approaching a landslide.
In the 2009 Gubernatorial Election Republican Bob McDonnell won election with over 58% of the vote. McDonnell won with the largest percentage of the vote of any candidate since 1961. McDonnell won despite President Obama having campaign appearances with Democrat Creigh Deeds putting Robocalls on Deeds behalf.
|Results by county and independent city|
In the 2010 Congressional Elections there was similarly a Republican Wave in Virginia. The GOP candidates won 8 or 11 elections and picked up three congressional seats. Over 116,000 more Virginians voted for GOP candidates than their Democrat opponents.
And in the Statewide 2011 elections Republicans won decisive victories in both the House of Delegates and in the Senate. In the Senate - prior to the election, 22 seats were held by Democrats and 18 seats were held by Republicans. Redistricting caused the 13th district to be moved from Hampton Roads to Northern Virginia and the 22nd district to be moved from the Roanoke area to a district stretching from Lynchburg to Richmond. Republicans gained two seats, making the Senate tied with 20 Democrats and 20 Republicans.
And in the House - prior to the election, the House of Delegates consisted of 58 Republicans, 39 Democrats, 2 Independents, with one vacant seat previously held by a Republican (Glenn Oder of the 94th district, who resigned in August 2011). Redistricting eliminated three seats: Southwestern Virginia's 2nd district, the Martinsville-area 10th district, and the Norfolk-based 87th district. These three seats were moved to Northern Virginia. Republicans gained seven seats from the Democrats and one seat from a retiring independent, making the House's composition 67 Republicans, 32 Democrats, and 1 Independent.
Final Election Numbers:
GOP: 1,163,651 votes
Democrat: 818,950 votes
GOP Senate: 743,336 votes
Democrat Senate: 536,104 votes
GOP House of Delegates: 762,576 votes
Democrat House of Delegates: 438,174 votes
Average (mean) GOP Margin of Victory (2009 - 2011) = 248,207
The Democrats would be wise to look somewhere else for their firewall. The average margin of victory in the last 4 elections has been OVER 248,000 and twice has been over 320,000. The real battleground Swing States in 2012 will be in the Midwest, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania (all of which went completely Republican in 2010). Color Virginia Red.