Sunday, July 20, 2014

Has anyone, ANYONE noticed that the Youth Vote is trending (and voting) Republican lately?

2012 Youth Vote Demographics - It is nearly an urban legend that the youth vote is a lynchpin of Democratic Politics.  Everyone knows that the young vote Democrat and only as they age and mature will tend to vote Republican.  After all the older you get the more likely you are to vote Republican.  The only problem with this urban legend is that it's false.   
In the 2012 election Mitt Romney WON the 18 year old vote, WON the 19 year old vote and WON the 20 year vote.  And the younger you are the more likely you are to vote for the Republican.

Via The Washington Post:
If we zero in even further on the youngest of the millennials in these polls — those who turned 18 during Obama’s first term — the potential challenges for Democrats become even clearer. Among self-reported voters who were 18 years old in 2012, Mitt Romney, not Obama, won the majority: 57 percent.  Romney also won 59 percent among 19-year-olds, and 54 percent among 20-year-olds.  These youngest voters of 2012 had entered the electorate in 2010-2012, when Obama’s popularity was much lower than the high point of his inauguration. 
2012 Election:   Romney (GOP) %        Obama (Democrat) %   MARGIN:
18 Year Old       57%                             43%                             Romney (GOP) +16%
19 Year Old       59%                             41%                             Romney (GOP) +18%
20 Year Old       54%                             46%                             Romney (GOP)  + 8%

Need more facts?  In the 2013 Virginia Governors Race Republican Ken Cuccinelli also WON the youth vote.  The Exit Poll breakdown:
   18 - 24 Year Old:    (6% Total Vote)
   Cuccinelli 45%   (GOP)
   McCauliffe 39%  (Democrat)
   Sarvis 6% (Libertarian)

   Margin:  Cuccinelli (GOP) +6%
It will be interesting to see if the media picks up on the fact that demographically the youth vote is trending Republican.

1 comment:

Sunnybrook Farm said...

That is why they are calling for more uneducated youth from across the border to make up for the ones who have figured it out here.