10 Reasons the Democrats are Toast in 2010

By Mark McKinnon of the Daily Beast.  

1. Red regions are gaining; blue are bleeding. Folks are fleeing stricken states in search of jobs. Based on these population changes, eight states in the more conservative South and West are projected to gain one or more U.S. House seats. With a probable gain of three or four seats, the biggest winner is Texas—not surprising, with its continuing record job growth. Ten states, mostly in the more liberal Northeast, will likely lose one House seat or more.

2. Republicans are pulling ahead in U.S. House races. With a projected gain of more than 40 House seats in November, Republican candidates also have the financial lead in most of the 15 competitive races in which Democratic incumbents aren’t running. Republicans only need a net gain of 39 seats to take the “damn gavel” away from Speaker Pelosi.

3. Toss-ups are turning red in the U.S. Senate. The GOP is leading or tied in eight Senate races for seats now held by Democrats, and is ahead in all Republican-held districts. More toss-up states on the map are leaning Republican. And the National Republican Senatorial Committee predicts a change in control of the Senate is now possible in just two election cycles.

4. Republicans are winning governorships. Thirty-seven governorships are being contested in November. Democrats are defending 19; Republicans 18. Of the 23 races without incumbents, thanks to term limits and voluntary—or involuntary—retirements, at least seven of these open states are already safe bets to switch to GOP control: Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wyoming. Add a promising Colorado, New Mexico, and Wisconsin, a possible Illinois, and retention of incumbencies, and Republicans take control of the majority of governorships. The Republican Governors Association has a record $40 million cash on hand to invest in these races and to promote its national “Remember November” campaign.

5. Republicans are winning state legislatures. Eighty-three percent of all state legislative seats are on the line in November. These local races can change the game on the national level. In most states, the legislative chambers, along with the governor, direct where congressional district lines are redrawn. In states like Pennsylvania, Republicans only need to pick up three seats to bring about a change in control. A Republican resurgence nationwide led by the Republican State Leadership Committee will give the GOP sole redistricting authority in more than 160 U.S. House districts, nearly six times more than their Democratic counterparts.

6. Republicans are winning on the issues. Voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on nine out of 10 key issues, including the all important economy. And the number of voters who view taxes as very important has jumped to its highest level ever. Here, Republicans already hold the edge on trust, 53 to 36 percent. Although overall awareness of the coming tax increases is low, already 55 percent of voters in 12 swing states, including 57 percent of independents, say they are less likely to vote for Democratic congressional candidates if next year’s scheduled tax increases are not stopped or delayed.

7. Democrats are losing black and Hispanic support. Only 43 percent of Hispanics, a key Democratic voting bloc, are satisfied with Obama’s performance, with the economy a major concern. Another 32 percent are undecided, while 21 percent say he’s done a poor job. And Gallup shows Obama’s job approval rating at 85 percent among black Americans, down from 94 percent in March and at the lowest ever as president.

8. Democrats are losing men, women, whites, and independents. Large numbers of whites, men, and independents have given up on Obama since his election. Support among whites dropped from 51 percent in July 2009 to 37 percent in July 2010, from 52 percent to 38 percent among independents, and from 54 percent to 39 percent among male voters overall. And while Obama averaged 59 percent approval among women in 2009, that number is now down 14 points to just 45 percent, threatening the Democrats’ traditional gender advantage.

9. Democrats are losing the young. Among millennials, who voted 2-to-1 for Obama, the president’s approval rating was 73 percent shortly after his January 2009 inauguration. That number plummeted to 57 percent a year later, and the president now trails a generic Republican among 18- to 34-year-olds.

10. Republican voters are energized; Democrats disinterested. Seventy-two percent of Republicans are certain they will vote in November, compared to 49 percent of Democrats. Democratic Party identification is down from the 8-point advantage in 2009 and the 12-point edge in 2008. And while moderates are peeling away, the more liberal in the party argue Democrats are not progressive enough.
Read the rest of the article here.

Common Cents would add Number 11.  

11.  Because the Democrats have been an abject failure - a disaster on the economy.  As detailed here and here on previous CC posts when the Democrats took over Congress the unemployment rate was 4.6% (it is 9.5% now)  The last time there was a Republican Congress the budget deficit was $176 Billion.  (It is nearly 10 times as high now).  This Democrat Congress has been beneath a failure the last 4 years they have been running things.  This year should be the 2nd time in the last 3 years they haven't even submitted a budget - their only Constitutional Responsibility.