Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Facebook IPO: Ten Reasons NOT to buy Facebook Stock:

It could be the largest IPO ever!  But before you buy Facebook take a look at the top 10 reasons NOT to purchase stock in Facebook.  From The Wall St Journal:

(1) The Camaro. General Motors Co. GM +2.29% pulled $10 million in ads from Facebook this week. GM said the ads were "ineffective." That, of course, wouldn't normally be a big deal. Facebook had $3.7 billion in ad revenue last year.
But more companies may be inclined to follow GM. Nearly half of advertisers see the ad dollars spent on Facebook as "experimental." And Facebook's ad revenue for the first quarter was actually down 6% from the previous quarter.
(2) Your favorite movie. Facebook, like Google and every service provider on the Internet, appears to give you something for nothing.
In reality, these companies are in the dirty business of peddling your personal details to advertisers—or worse. Facebook knows more than just where you live and where you work. It knows what you like and what you don't.
The company has attempted to give users more control about how much of their information is made public, but Facebook is very cagey when it comes to saying how it will use that information.
There is a lot of potential risk here: misuse of data, public backlash and potential government action. It wouldn't be a big deal until investors realize that their personal information is Facebook's single-biggest selling point to its ad customers.
(3) Global population growth. At some point, Facebook is going to run out of people. The social network already has 901 million active monthly users. And sure, that number could double, even triple. There are seven billion people on the planet, and Mark Zuckerberg could buy all of them a computer just to get them on the site.
At some point, Facebook is going to meet resistance. And the hurdles could come sooner than later. Renren, RENN +7.02% the popular Chinese social network, could have 200 million users by yearend.
(4) Baseball cards. As we do more of what we used to do at our desks on our phones, Facebook's ads are being shut out. Its mobile applications are ad-free. They have to be.
With most smart-phone displays the size of baseball cards, there's hardly any room to see all those annoying updates from your friends. Facebook says the ads will come, but as the apps become less user-friendly, how long will it take for ad-free rivals to capitalize?
(5) Friendster, MySpace. Consider all the wonderful things being said about Facebook today, and I can assure you it was said about those two precursors to today's can't-miss social network.
(6) The hoodie. Mr. Zuckerberg is brilliant. He's a rock star. He's already been the protagonist of a major movie. He's also just one person with authoritarian rule over Facebook. He spent $1 billion on Instagram without consulting, well, anyone.
Forget what would happen to Facebook if something tragic happened to him. What if he simply makes a big mistake?
(7) No parents. Facebook, it has been said, is a two-headed company. One head is Mr. Zuckerberg, who builds the products for the users. Cheryl Sandberg, the chief operating officer, is the one responsible for making the money. She's also considered the company's unofficial grown-up, given that she is older than 40 and has worked somewhere other than the college bookstore, even if it was Google.
Together, they've built a nontraditional way of doing business. No meetings. Small teams. They have unconventional mottos: "Move fast, break things" is one, and "Done is better than perfect" is another. This could be a business revolution—or the start of a food fight in the corporate cafeteria.
(8) Boredom. No matter how people swear up and down that money won't change them or it's not about the money or the purpose of Facebook was never "to be a company," the truth is money does change people. It changes lives and makes it harder to stay creative, focused and hungry.
(9) Krispy Kreme. It's one thing to have a product that everyone loves. It's another thing to make money.
Investors care only about the latter. Ask Krispy Kreme's former chief executive, Scott Livengood, about how things went after the company reported its first loss as a public company in 2004. Mr. Livengood was out in less than a year, and he had been selling doughy cakes covered in sugar.
(10) The ceiling. We may already have hit it with Facebook's valuation.
Consider that Facebook's 88% growth rate last year was something the company acknowledged was "unsustainable." Or that 10% to 15% of revenue comes from Zynga ZNGA -3.97% and other game companies that use the Facebook platform. Or everything in this list: skeptical advertisers, a young management team about to become amazingly rich, a history of social-network flameouts, deep-pocketed competition and the privacy issue.

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