The news from this latest State Sponsored poll is that the race is "dead even" but they get that result by giving a +9 Democrat advantage. No way. In 2008 there was a +7 Democrat split and in 2010 it was even. Only by keeping the Republican sample to 27% can they achieve this. Interesting Rasmussen routinely has Republicans leading in voter affiliation, often by as much a 8 points - today it it GOP up by 3!
GROUPS – Vote preferences among groups, as noted, include Romney’s best showing to date
among registered voters who identify themselves as independents, 53-39 percent. Obama comes back to parity overall because Democrats account for a larger share of the pie than Republicans, 36 percent of registered voters vs. 27 percent.
Among other groups, preferences among married women who are registered to vote continue to be unsettled; they now divide very closely, 44-47 percent, Obama-Romney, after a better result for Obama in April and for Romney in May. Obama’s support meanwhile is a bit softer than usual among unmarried women, but his best to date among unmarried men. The gender gap more generally is back – Obama up by 8 points among women, Romney by 7 among men.
Romney, for his part, ties his best result so far among senior citizens, 57-37 percent, and runs
evenly with Obama among college graduates, a group in which Obama did better earlier this
year. Combined with the closeness of the contest, the sharp differences among groups make the 2012 election look like one in which broad themes are likely to matter less than either a breakout event – or, more likely, each campaign’s eventual proficiency at persuading its supporters to vote.
1 comment:
Does this poll take into account the recently revealed information that Democrats have lost 100,000+ registrations over the last few years while independent voters have risen?
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