Up from one point a week ago the GOPs lead on the generic ballot has grown to a 4 point lead. See below:
The 2022 midterm elections are now 32 days away, and Republicans have a four-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 43% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The GOP lead is up three points from last week, when they led 45% to 44%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed significantly since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.
In October 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a five-point advantage (47% to 42%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 2-6, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
The expanded Republican lead is due to both greater partisan intensity and a seven-point advantage among independent voters. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 83% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 41% would vote Republican and 37% would vote Democrat, while seven percent (7%) would vote for some other candidate and 17% are undecided.
Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 21% of Black voters and 45% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Black voters, and 39% of whites and other minorities would vote Democrat.
The so-called “gender gap” has narrowed in the latest findings, with men (48%) now just two points more likely than women voters (46%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was six points last week.
Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 19-point margin, 51% to 32%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 52% to 39%, and the GOP lead is 16 points – 56% to 40% – among voters 65 and older.
Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats have a 51% majority among voters with annual incomes over $100,000, while Republicans have their largest advantage – 50% to 41% – among those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year.
Read the entire story here.
No comments:
Post a Comment