Congratulations to the VA Democratic Party who had a good night Tuesday Night. The Dems picked up four seats in the General Assemble and held the Senate by losing only one seat. So it will be 21-19 Dem margin in the Senate Democrat and 51-49 Democrat in the Gen Assembly. And of course to the victors go the spoils. Governor Youngkin put everything on the line - on Monday he actually made six campaign stops going all in.
So "The rest of the story". It turns out the VA Republican Party actually (it can be argued) actually over-performed. You see the GOP won every Trump district and Biden districts up to Biden +9. The problem is the GOP, to win both chambers had to win Biden +10 districts and that was just a bridge too far. where at least 20 of the state's 40 seats were "Safe Democrat" or "Lean Democrat". Townhall has an excellent story on the VA results.
Yes the Democrats were able to pull off a pretty brutal gerrymander - both sides do it and at the bottom of this story is a lesson in Karma or fate.
In Virginia, Republicans hoped to hold the state's lower legislative chamber, which they narrowly controlled, while retaking the Senate. They did neither, relinquishing a handful of Assembly seats, and appear on track to only gaining a single Senate seat, falling shy of a majority. Gov. Glenn Youngkin is popular in the Commonwealth, and he campaigned hard for the GOP slate of candidates, quite a lot of whom were genuinely impressive. They ran a good, strong race. They had a unified message. They generally over-performed the partisan bent of their districts, especially compared to Biden's 2020 margins, but it just wasn't sufficient in enough places:
Democrats ran on a message of 'TRUMP MAGA ABORTION,' with some strategically promising to work with Youngkin, to demonstrate their reasonableness. They painted every GOP candidate in contested races as Trump acolytes, and they blasted the airwaves and social media with false claims that Republicans would ban every abortion in the state. Youngkin, who remains popular, has been pushing a very reasonable 15-week abortion limit with exceptions, which was the GOP counter-message (which polled fairly well). Even if that helped neutralize the issue somewhat, the Democratic base turned out, and Republicans fell short. The Democrats are projected to have one-seat majorities in Richmond -- 51/49 in the House, and 21/19 in the Senate (give or take, as some ballots are still being tabulated). Youngkin is well-liked. Biden is unpopular. Net/net, Youngkin's party lost ground, and Biden's gained. But don't throw Virginia Republicans' approach out with the bath water:
A few more scattered thoughts: (1) Sure, there were scattered victories for Republicans and conservative ideas across the country last night, including some pretty big surprises. It wasn't universally an awful night on the Right, but the GOP shouldn't need to be grasping at straws with Biden as unpopular as he is, and the electorate as pessimistic as it is. (2) The midterms, coupled with the latest off-year election results, may calm some of the Democratic panic about Biden running again in 2024. The data is dire for him, but his party keeps winning. If Biden is ultimately nominated and wins, the party's series of gambles and messaging decisions will have paid off in spades, over and over. But (3) while it may seem impossible to square Sunday's New York Times swing state polls with Tuesday's results, there's a plausible explanation for why they're not incompatible:
It used to be the case that Republicans performed very well in low-turnout and off-year elections, because their base was focused and enthusiastic and comprised of a lot of high-propensity voters. With the political realignment that's underway, the parties are changing. Republicans are becoming more blue collar, and more diverse, and less high-propensity. Since Trump was elected, educated, wealthier voters in the cities and suburbs have flocked to the Democrats. These are organized, high-propensity voters. This is a simplification, but it's useful:
It's possible that Democrats are over-confident because their core base has been a lot more committed to showing up, en masse, ever since 2016 -- while the Republican base is shifting. In recent decades, higher turnout has generally benefited Democrats. It's now plausible that higher turnout and higher-profile elections will now draw more moderate-to-low-propensity voters to the polls in a way that benefits Republicans. Trump supporters will argue, not without reason, that Trump being on the ballot will help a lot next November. On the other hand, Trump is a proven turnout driver on the other side, and it's unclear how possible criminal convictions will scramble public opinion. There's a case to be made that Trump's presence on the ballot, specifically against Joe Biden, will maximize the GOP coalition's chances at winning (this would suggest otherwise, at least in theory). But that's an all-in gamble that could either pay off, or extend the party's Trump-ers losing streak, with everything at stake. Gulp. Finally, (4) once again, Democrats are the Money In Politics party, despite their rhetoric to the contrary:
They've consistently outspent Republicans for 15 years now, which isn't always determinative, but it drives their message a lot more aggressively. Between that factor, and the 'news' media often acting as a Democratic Super PAC, it's a lot for the GOP to overcome. Especially in light of reports like this earlier in the fall (headline: 'RNC Denies Virginia GOP's Request for Cash') questions about the effectiveness, priorities, and stewardship of the RNC will likely grow louder. There has been a lot of losing. But the nation is polarized, and this takeaway is also true:
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